ICAO 2013 Environmental Report - page 142

icao environmental report
2013
• the environmental objective is to maintain
CO
2
 emissions at the same level from the
year 2020 (
i.e.
carbon neutral growth);
• the impacts of MBMs would be evaluated from 
2020 to 2036 (timeline);
• the future price of carbon per tonne of CO
2
(2010
USD): $30 in 2020, $40 in 2030, and $45 in 2035
3
;
• the future price of fuel based on crude oil per barrel
(2010 USD): $109 in 2020, $117 in 2030, and $120
in 2035
4
;
• the cost of purchasing emissions units would
be passed through to ticket prices (100% cost
pass through);
• use of alternative fuels would result in zero
CO
2
 emissions; and
• only CO
2
emissions from international aviation are
considered (
i.e.
non-CO
2
impacts of aviation are not
included in this assessment).
In the quantitative assessment portion of the core study, six
scenarios were developed using the above listed assumptions
for all MBM options, including different levels of revenue
generation for those options that can generate revenue.
The core study also assessed the impacts of MBMs on
developing countries. Three different approaches were
used: 1) evaluating six regions; 2) comparing differences
between Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and non-
LDCs; and 3) a sample analysis of countries which took
into account the level of development by per capita income,
and international aviation activity in terms of available seat
kilometres (ASK).
The supplementary study assessed MBM impacts using two
scenarios. Emissions reduction potentials from both new
technologies and operational improvements were analyzed.
The study also looked at the impacts of the potential use
of alternative fuels.
Results of the Quantitative ASSESSMENT
In the 2012 core study, the cost of introducing an MBM was
found to be relatively small. Under a scenario of keeping
net carbon emissions at the same level from the year 2020,
MBMs would need to reduce or offset 464 Mt of CO
2
by 2036
to cover emissions increases from 2020 to 2036. In the
cases where 100% of the costs of an MBM would be passed
on to customers through increases in the price of tickets,
the quantitative assessment showed that:
Traffic Impact:
Under an MBM scenario, international
aviation traffic would grow 107% from the years 2020
to 2036. Without an MBM, traffic would grow 110%
between 2020 and 2036. Thus, the traffic level in 2036
would be 1.2% lower as a result of an MBM.
Assessing the Impacts of MBMs
The first study, in which the three MBM options were
analysed, is referred to as the core study and was
conducted in 2012. The core study assessed the
possible economic and environmental impacts of: global
mandatory offsetting, global mandatory offsetting with
revenue, and global emissions trading (see
Box
on Global
MBM Options for International Aviation). The study was
comprised of two parts: quantitative and qualitative. In
the quantitative assessment, impacts at a global level and
on developing countries were assessed. In the qualitative
assessment, the main design features were identified for
each of the three MBM options. This evaluation helped
identify the main differences between MBM options and
highlight the differences in the administrative complexity
of these options.
The second study, known as the supplementary study was
limited to a quantitative assessment of the impact of a single
global MBM measure on international aviation. It used the
updated traffic forecasts and emissions trends prepared
in 2013 by CAEP to further assess the impacts of MBMs on
international aviation. The economic and environmental impacts
were assessed only at a global level in the supplementary study.
Modelling Tools Used in the
Quantitative Assessments
The quantitative assessment of the core study was
undertaken using aviation-specific economic models. Two
models were employed in the evaluation of MBM options.
The first model, the Aviation Emissions and Evaluation of
Reduction Options – Modelling System (AERO–MS), was
developed in Europe, while the second model, Aviation
Portfolio Management Tool for Economics (APMT –
Economics), was developed in North America. Both tools
were developed for the purpose of testing the environmental
and economic consequences of implementing various
measures to reduce global aircraft engine emissions and
validated by CAEP.
The supplementary study used a simplified spread sheet
model that was developed by the ICAO Secretariat in
association with MBM Experts.
Approach Used in the Quantitative ASSESSMENT
To assess the impact of MBMs, it is first necessary to know
the emissions reduction goals they will achieve and the
timeline for their implementation. Then, the future of the
aviation sector both with and without MBMs is forecasted
and the results are compared to reveal the impact of MBMs.
Assumptions defined for the analysis were kept consistent
for both studies. These assumptions are:
chapter 4
global emissions
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